Methodology
How we score predictions
The score
Accuracy is the number of predictions resolved True divided by all resolved predictions: True / (True + False). Unresolved calls are excluded from the calculation and remain visible in the record.
Resolving a call
Analysts assess the central claim against verifiable real-world outcomes. A mixed or conditional result is explained on the prediction itself so the judgment is clear.
The public record
Each prediction shows the immutable CMS creation timestamp, the current assessment, and the explanation when it has resolved. Records may be refined or removed by the editorial team.