China's below-cost dumping crackdown will hit solar and steel export volumes within six months, not domestic prices.
The new SAMR-NDRC cost-accounting rules, part of the "1+1+N" anti-involution framework, target sub-scale producers rather than genuine overcapacity, so Beijing will prioritise squeezing marginal exporters out first. Expect Chinese solar module and steel export volumes to Southeast Asia to fall noticeably before domestic factory-gate prices meaningfully recover, since local governments still resist output cuts that cost jobs.
The new SAMR-NDRC cost-accounting rules, part of the "1+1+N" anti-involution framework, target sub-scale producers rather than genuine overcapacity, so Beijing will prioritise squeezing marginal exporters out first. Expect Chinese solar module and steel export volumes to Southeast Asia to fall noticeably before domestic factory-gate prices meaningfully recover, since local governments still resist output cuts that cost jobs.