All predictions
Unresolved

Beijing will impose at least one new retaliatory trade measure targeting South Korean firms within three months, using Seoul's new export licensing regime for advanced chips as the pretext.

South Korea has just added high-performance AI semiconductors and advanced chipmaking equipment to its strategic goods list, aligning its controls with the US, EU and Japan. China has already warned Korean companies against re-exporting rare-earth-derived goods to American defence firms and tightened mineral licensing, so a move that visibly locks Seoul into the Western export-control bloc gives Beijing fresh justification to single out Korean firms, likely through customs delays or a new anti-dumping probe.

South Korea has just added high-performance AI semiconductors and advanced chipmaking equipment to its strategic goods list, aligning its controls with the US, EU and Japan. China has already warned Korean companies against re-exporting rare-earth-derived goods to American defence firms and tightened mineral licensing, so a move that visibly locks Seoul into the Western export-control bloc gives Beijing fresh justification to single out Korean firms, likely through customs delays or a new anti-dumping probe.