Bilby prediction record

Predictions that hold up over time

A timestamped public record of what we called, and how each call resolved.

Prediction scorecard

Accuracy

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True

0

False

0

Unresolved

129

Outcomes by prediction date

All published calls, grouped by prediction date.

TrueFalseUnresolved

Published predictions

129 predictions

Newest created first

Unresolved

At least one major private Indonesian property developer will report a credit-rating downgrade or bond-covenant stress within two quarters.

State investment agency Danantara's debt restructuring of distressed SOE builders effectively subsidises below-market mortgages and liquidates cheap inventory, squeezing listed private developers like Bumi Serpong Damai and Ciputra on pricing power in an already soft market.

By David Lee#Indonesia
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

China's cumulative cross-border RMB settlement volume tied to export loans will rise by at least 15% year-on-year in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.

New SAFE rules, taking effect on 1 October, introduce direct current-account crediting and remove prior administrative approval for debt-servicing currency purchases, materially cutting transaction friction for exporters. Beijing also has an incentive to showcase RMB settlement gains as evidence of "opening while controlling."

By David Lee#China
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Japan's nuclear share of electricity generation will fall short of the government's 20% FY2040 target, landing between 13-16% instead.

Only 14 of 33 workable reactors are online today against an 8.5% baseline, and newly flagged worker shortages, cautious NRA screening, and persistent local opposition make full compliance among all remaining units implausible on this timeline.

By David Lee#Japan
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Seoul will sign at least one binding long-term lithium or copper supply agreement with a Chilean producer within six months.

With a reactivation of the Korea-Chile FTA commission and Korean battery producers racing to secure battery-grade minerals, locking in Chilean mineral supplies has become a priority to hedge against renewed price spikes and Chinese competition for the same cargoes.

By Marco Law#South Korea
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

China's PBOC will cut a key policy rate by 10 basis points before the end of September 2026.

Q2 growth of 4.3% missed Beijing's 4.5-5% target, and the Politburo's latest "moderately loose monetary policy" language, though light on explicit easing now, sets up an autumn cut once weak Q3 data confirms the need for support ahead of October's Central Committee Fifth Plenum.

By Marco Law#China
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

CPTPP members will formally establish an Accession Working Group for Indonesia by mid-2027, but Jakarta's stated target of full membership by 2027 will slip into 2028.

Preparatory talks only began in June 2026 and require unanimous consent to advance; comparable accessions, like the UK's, took over a year from working-group formation to ratification, making Jakarta's compressed timeline unlikely to hold.

By Marco Law#Indonesia
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

South Korea will sign its first concrete AI data-centre "package export" agreement with a UAE entity within 12 months.

The newly launched AIDC Alliance's export task force has explicitly named the UAE as its priority market for bundled data centre design-to-operation contracts backed by an expanding National Growth Fund, making a signed deal the clearest early test of the initiative's credibility.

By Marco Law#South Korea
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

China will bring at least one of chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation or paper manufacturing into mandatory emissions trading system (ETS) compliance by end-2027.

The climate response five-year plan's 17% emissions-intensity target by 2030 explicitly requires widening the ETS beyond its current power-steel-cement-aluminium base, and a parallel 2025 State Council directive already set 2027 as the deadline for covering "all major industrial emitters".

By Marco Law#China
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.