Bilby prediction record

Predictions that hold up over time

A timestamped public record of what we called, and how each call resolved.

Prediction scorecard

Accuracy

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True

0

False

0

Unresolved

129

Outcomes by prediction date

All published calls, grouped by prediction date.

TrueFalseUnresolved

Published predictions

129 predictions

Newest created first

Unresolved

A major South Korean steel, shipbuilding or automotive group will sign a binding technology-purchase commitment with SME robotics or AI-component suppliers by November 2026.

Seoul's new economic structural innovation plan, which pairs AI and robot deployment across heavy manufacturing with 200,000 training slots to counter slowing growth, needs an early, concrete supplier deal to show the programme is delivering before its funding is locked into the 2027 budget.

By David Lee#South Korea
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

A major Japanese printer or copier maker (Canon, Ricoh, Fujifilm or Konica Minolta) will announce a China-specific firmware localisation partnership with a Chinese software developer within six months.

China's commerce ministry has opened its first-ever national security investigation into imported office printing and copying equipment running foreign system software, and facing exclusion from government and state-enterprise procurement, these Japanese manufacturers have strong incentive to swap in Chinese-developed firmware.

By David Lee#China#Japan
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

India will introduce a roughly 0.25-0.3% UPI merchant fee on payments above ₹2,000 within the next 12 months, while keeping person-to-person transfers and small purchases free.

Parliament has authorised UPI charges for the first time since 2016, making a targeted levy on higher-value retail payments the likeliest way to monetise the network without provoking backlash from small merchants and consumers.

By David Lee#India
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

A Chinese gold miner such as Zhaojin Mining will announce a new overseas gold-mine acquisition, likely in Africa or Central Asia, within 12 months.

Domestic output fell 14.6% year-on-year in H1 2026 to 152.9 tonnes on safety-driven mine closures even as consumption rose 1.2% to 511.4 tonnes, and executives have already signalled active deal-hunting abroad to bridge the widening domestic supply gap.

By David Lee#China
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Toyota will confirm a new or expanded battery-electric vehicle assembly line in Indonesia worth at least $100 million by mid-2027.

Jakarta's new incentive scheme rewards only EVs with high local content and excludes hybrids, while Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has publicly courted Toyota with incentive pledges, making a major localisation commitment the company's most likely move to secure the subsidies.

By David Lee#Indonesia
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Wind and solar project permit applications submitted to Korean regional energy offices will rise by more than 40% year-on-year in the next 12 months.

With roughly 16,600 sq km of previously off-limits land reopened by a national setback cap and 129 of Korea's 228 local governments required to loosen stricter rules, developers who had shelved projects for lack of compliant sites have a clear incentive to refile en masse.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

A major Apple supplier such as Foxconn or Tata Electronics will announce a new India capex commitment above USD 500 million within the next two quarters.

A new bill extending duty and tax exemptions on imported manufacturing equipment out to 2040-41 removes the biggest long-horizon risk cited by contract manufacturers weighing deeper India assembly against Vietnam.

By David Lee#India
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Indonesia will fail to disburse even half of its newly announced electric motorcycle subsidy quota within six months of launch.

Jakarta is expected to push a fresh EV incentive package covering up to 500,000 units before Q4 2026, but its EV subsidy programmes have chronically undershot targets before and nothing in the redesigned scheme addresses the dealer, verification and awareness bottlenecks that caused that shortfall.

By David Lee#Indonesia
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Tokyo will sign a new preliminary agreement or letter of intent on lethal-equipment export with the Philippines or Vietnam before February 2027.

The new defence white paper's explicit endorsement of expanded arms exports and deeper regional coalition security ties gives Japanese officials fresh political cover to fast-track deals, while defence manufacturers gearing up for the domestic build-up need export volume to justify capacity expansion.

By David Lee#Japan
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

At least three of Korea's top five cross-shareholding-restricted conglomerate groups will raise 2026 dividend payouts by more than 10% above their 2024-2025 average.

Facing the extended 20% surtax on excess retained earnings running through 2028, groups like Samsung, SK and Hyundai Motor have a direct, dated financial incentive to distribute cash rather than accumulate it.

By David Lee#South Korea
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.