Bilby prediction record

Predictions that hold up over time

A timestamped public record of what we called, and how each call resolved.

Prediction scorecard

Accuracy

—

True

0

False

0

Unresolved

126

Outcomes by prediction date

All published calls, grouped by prediction date.

TrueFalseUnresolved

Published predictions

126 predictions

Newest created first

Unresolved

Thailand and Vietnam will broaden e-commerce crackdowns through 2027.

Both governments have targeted major platforms, particularly Shopee and Lazada, halting seller fee increases amid concerns that rising charges are squeezing merchants and pushing up consumer prices. Having initially focused on seller fees, regulators are now extending their scrutiny to wider platform monetisation practices. Regulators in Indonesia and Malaysia are likely to follow suit.

By Marco Law#Thailand
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Korean drugmakers will face a two-sided squeeze: falling returns from generics just as the government pushes them to spend more on R&D.

South Korea plans to give companies that meet minimum R&D thresholds preferential drug pricing, while cutting generic reimbursement from about 54% towards 45%. That means the cash flows many manufacturers rely on to fund research will weaken at the same time as the requirements for pricing privileges grow. Firms may respond by selling lower-margin generic lines and redirecting the proceeds into R&D, but without foreign pharmaceutical buyers or other sources of outside capital, many could face several hard years where profits will fall.

By Marco Law#South Korea
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

DATC-led restructuring will concentrate Vietnam’s property sector in a handful of better-capitalised firms.

The Politburo is seeking to revive distressed developments as weak liquidity and unfinished projects weigh on the housing market. Expanding DATC’s ability to acquire and restructure troubled assets will return more projects to the market — and consolidate the market.

By Marco Law#Vietnam
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Indonesia will see a rise in upstream oil and gas investment approvals in 2027 as BUK Migas streamlines major projects clearance.

Prabowo’s target of raising oil output to 1 million barrels per day by 2029 is being limited by a clearance process fragmented across ministries. The creation of BUK Migas as a new energy regulator reporting directly to Prabowo will strengthen Jakarta’s ability to coordinate and accelerate major projects. Russian companies could be among the earliest beneficiaries, after Prabowo recently invited Russian investors to bid for 138 oil and gas exploration blocks. Western majors will have difficult choices to make.

By Marco Law#Indonesia
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Foreign manufacturers will increasingly use Thai-listed subsidiaries as vehicles for Southeast Asia expansion by 2028.

As firms diversify production beyond China, Thailand is positioning itself as an alternative manufacturing base. The Board of Investment’s IPO reform lets eligible foreign manufacturers list locally, giving their Thai subsidiaries access to domestic capital beyond parent funding. As global minimum tax rules weaken traditional incentives and regional rivals lack comparable listing reforms, Thailand is pitching to manufacturers pursuing China+1 diversification and regional expansion.

By Marco Law#Thailand
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Trump will not impose the new 100% Russian oil tariff on India before mid-2027, even if the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act becomes law with India named as a top buyer.

The bill leaves the tariff to presidential discretion, Trump has already reversed course once lifting a 25% punitive tariff on India in February 2026 as trade talks progressed. With the Bilateral Trade Agreement unsigned and Goyal still pushing for better terms, Washington will likely keep this as unexercised leverage over Delhi, not the imminent tariff many now assume.

By Marco Law#India
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

With Indonesia's Anti-Dumping Committe's (KADI) anti-dumping probe into Chinese steel underway, Indonesia will impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel by late 2027.

KADI's investigation runs on a 12-month statutory clock under, placing a definitive ruling by September 2027. KADI's record with Chinese steel specifically has been consistent having already imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel at rates up to 50% in the past.

By Marco Law#Indonesia
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

South Korea’s mandatory takeover bid rules will reduce overall corporate acquisition activity in 2027.

Heightened buyout costs, driven by the mandatory tender offer rule and external appraisal requirements for mergers and major asset transfers raises the price and procedural burden of acquiring firms, deterring chaebols from pursuing corporate acquisitions.

By Marco Law#South Korea
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

India will not relax rules on Chinese investment within the next twelve months, despite the warmer tone at the BRICS summit.

Wang Yi's framing of India and China as "partners not rivals" is diplomatic messaging by China, but it's not clear that India will agree any time soon. New Delhi's security establishment still treats Chinese investment in telecoms, ports and tech as a strategic risk, and that calculus has not shifted. The securocrats still hold enough rule-making sway to keep Beijing at bay.

By Marco Law#India
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Despite reserves hitting a record $785.7 billion, the rupee will not meaningfully strengthen and will likely stay within roughly a 94 to 97 per dollar range through year end.

The reserve surge stems largely from RBI swap driven inflows, not underlying strength, while sustained foreign portfolio outflows and elevated oil prices keep driving real depreciation pressure, meaning the buffer manages the pace of decline rather than reversing it.

By Marco Law#India
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.