Bilby prediction record
A timestamped public record of what we called, and how each call resolved.
Accuracy
—
True
0
False
0
Unresolved
129
All published calls, grouped by prediction date.
129 predictions
Newest created first
Mandating a 60-day cash payment cap is likely to produce isolated defaults among already-distressed issuers and force some toward costlier bank bridge financing.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
Jakarta's up‑to‑6%‑of‑global‑revenue penalty is designed as a deterrent large enough to force compliance overhauls. Jakarta has shown willingness to make an early example to establish credibility in their tech regulation drive.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
The reserve surge stems largely from RBI swap driven inflows, not underlying strength, while sustained foreign portfolio outflows and elevated oil prices keep driving real depreciation pressure, meaning the buffer manages the pace of decline rather than reversing it.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
Shipping trackers show almost no tankers have moved since Jakarta struck the April deal, and refinery outages at Rosneft's Ryazan and Novokuybyshevsk plants are delaying loadings by weeks. This week's formalisation reflects political commitment rather than logistical readiness, so headline pledges will keep outpacing actual deliveries.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
Demand has grown for three straight years, hitting a record 476,703 applications worth HK$119.3 billion against this year's HK$55 billion cap, roughly 28% more bidders than the prior batch. Banks still undercutting the bond's 4.25% guaranteed coupon will keep pulling ageing savers' deposits away from commercial lenders.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
The new SAMR-NDRC cost-accounting rules, part of the "1+1+N" anti-involution framework, target sub-scale producers rather than genuine overcapacity, so Beijing will prioritise squeezing marginal exporters out first. Expect Chinese solar module and steel export volumes to Southeast Asia to fall noticeably before domestic factory-gate prices meaningfully recover, since local governments still resist output cuts that cost jobs.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
The overhaul is framed as protecting Japanese and Thai suppliers from Chinese import dumping, but BYD, Great Wall and MG already run Thai assembly plants and battery localisation lines faster than Toyota, Honda or Mazda, whose EV lineups still lean on imported completed vehicles. Expect combined Chinese brand share of Thai battery-electric registrations to stay above 60% through 2027.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
As of June 2026, Malaysia had approved 293 such projects worth US$2.95 billion, with 180 projects worth US$1.48 billion already implemented, spread across textiles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, petrochemicals, metal products, transport and renewable energy. Green and health sectors are widely assumed to dominate this pipeline, but infrastructure firms like IJM and Eversendai already sit alongside renewables player Gentari India in the mix.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
Government figures show fuel-grade ethanol capacity of roughly 70,000 kilolitres against an annual requirement near 4 million kilolitres for full E20, a gap the newly scrapped bioethanol excise tax alone cannot close. Indonesia's palm-based biodiesel programme took over a decade to scale using abundant feedstock; sugarcane and cassava-based ethanol lacks that surplus, so the promised energy-security win will likely need costly imports or a diluted mandate instead.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
Thailand's finance ministry is offering 50,000-baht subsidies to help a million households install rooftop solar from mid-October, but roughly half its solar equipment comes from China, which scrapped panel export tax rebates in April 2026. Thai research company Kasikorn Research already projects a 9 to 15% import price rise from that change alone, meaning installers face higher costs just as demand surges, likely pushing either household co-payments up or the rollout pace down.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
TSMC's record 72.5% global market share in Q2 reflects overwhelming control of advanced AI chip manufacturing, and Samsung's path to catching up depends on its 2-nanometre yields, the rate of usable chips per silicon wafer, clearing roughly 70%, the level industry reports say is needed for reliable high-volume orders. Samsung's yields at its Texas plant remain near 55%, which already forced a six-month delay to Tesla's chips and pushed real output there into late 2027, meaning the deal will not translate to real market share recovery until 2028 at the earliest.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.
The Korea Fair Trade Commission's draft guideline, open for public comment until 30 September, extends its existing "business transfer" merger category to organised staff transfers, triggered once a deal clears 10 billion won (roughly $7 million) or 10% of the seller's total assets, alongside proof the buyer now runs the seller's former business or has gutted its revenue. Most acqui-hired AI startups are pre-revenue with no sales to gut, so that qualitative test, not the modest monetary one, will keep filings rare.
No resolution yet
We will update this record when the outcome is clear.