Bilby prediction record

Predictions that hold up over time

A timestamped public record of what we called, and how each call resolved.

Prediction scorecard

Accuracy

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True

0

False

0

Unresolved

129

Outcomes by prediction date

All published calls, grouped by prediction date.

TrueFalseUnresolved

Published predictions

129 predictions

Newest created first

Unresolved

A Chinese state reactor developer will make it onto Singapore's first formal shortlist of nuclear vendors.

Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry signed a nuclear cooperation pact with China's Atomic Energy Authority, with assumptions that Western security concerns will ultimately prevail over this symbolic hedge. But Singapore, which sources LNG and grid technology from China, has never treated energy procurement as a bloc choice, and with Chinese small modular reactors cheaper and commercially further advanced than most Western rivals, exclusion looks less likely once supplier selection begins.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Beijing will cut the reserve requirement ratio by no more than 25–50 basis points before October, but will not launch a nationwide cash-handout or consumption-voucher scheme in 2026.

Premier Li Qiang's admission of weak demand revived expectations on a 2008- or 2015-style "bazooka" by the Chinese government. In reality, his remarks doubled down on existing levers — infrastructure investment and "stabilising external demand" — confirming Beijing still prioritises supply-side capacity and export competitiveness over direct consumer transfers.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Taiwan's 2027 defence budget, to be unveiled 20 August, will pass the Legislative Yuan without the KMT-led opposition stripping more than 5% of its proposed NT$1.1 trillion total.

The opposition just set this precedent in this year's budget fight, having threatened a 70% cut to drone funding before backing down and ultimately trimming only about 1.6% off the entire NT$2.9869 trillion general budget, preferring to squeeze softer targets instead. The pattern will likely repeat given the KMT's continued political exposure to accusations that it is soft on Beijing or obstructing national security.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

A Chinese firm — not a Western or Korean one — will be first to break ground on a new Vietnamese rare-earth or battery-material processing plant within 12 months of Hanoi's new materials directive.

The Politburo's conclusion, mandating a domestic overhaul of Vietnam's materials industry, was meant to reduce reliance on Beijing, but Chinese firms like Baotou INST Magnetic already dominate Vietnam's existing magnet-investment pipeline and hold the separation technology Hanoi actually needs to hit its localisation targets at scale.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Regulators will publicly discipline at least one bank within 12 months for enabling disguised capital flight through China's new nationwide cross-border cash-pooling rules.

Beijing barred real estate developers and LGFVs from participating precisely because pooled multinational treasury accounts are a known capital-flight conduit, but the sharply widened participant base created by the rules gives far more surface area for abuse than regulators can screen upfront, historically prompting an early example-making enforcement case.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

South Korea's industrial electricity tariffs up by more than 5% cumulatively by 2028 if its new climate law is enacted, as state utility KEPCO passes through rising carbon-allowance costs.

The National Assembly's climate committee this week locked in steep decarbonisation targets for the power sector under the amended Carbon Neutrality Framework Act, and with the Emissions Trading Scheme already mandating a 69-75% cut for electricity generation alongside rising auctioned-allowance shares, KEPCO has a consistent record of recovering higher compliance costs through tariff hikes rather than absorbing them.

By David Lee#South Korea
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

At least one major offshore wind developer will withdraw from or downsize a Japanese project within six months, despite Tokyo's subsidy hike to ¥700,000/kW.

Mitsubishi and other developers already returned allocations in 2024 over cost blowouts from steel prices, currency swings and turbine supply, so a 3.5-times subsidy rise narrows but does not eliminate the financing gap driving exits.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Indonesia will commission less than 3GW of new solar capacity in 2026, missing Prabowo's 30GW target by roughly 90%.

With under five months left in the year and only ~1GW of solar installed after a decade of trying, PLN cannot fast-track utility-scale projects from financial close to grid connection in time — 2026 additions will come almost entirely from rooftop, C&I and already-under-construction IPP pipelines rather than new builds triggered by this week's diesel-phase-out directive.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Fewer than 50 additional funds will successfully claim Hong Kong's broadened carried-interest concession in its first full year, undercutting official enthusiasm.

Hong Kong's 2023 family-office tax concession drew so few claims that officials refused to disclose the number to the Legislative Council, calling the regime "still at an early stage," a pattern of hype outrunning uptake likely to repeat despite the widened eligibility.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

State-owned NMDC and SAIL will report no material earnings benefit from India's MMDR Amendment Bill in their Q2 and Q3 FY27 results, despite investor enthusiasm.

The bill only restricts future state levies pending a central cap yet to be notified, and explicitly shields already-collected dues from refund, so Jharkhand's ₹400-per-tonne iron-ore levy on SAIL and any Karnataka-style charges on NMDC keep flowing until the executive rules actually land.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

South Korea's rare-earth dependence on China will still sit above 70% in every category through 2028, despite the new SEED stockpiling and recycling push.

Seoul has diversified gallium and germanium sourcing within 18 months by tapping refining capacity in Germany, the US and Canada, but its dependence on China for raw rare-earth elements (79.8%) and processed compounds and magnets (85-92%) will prove far harder to cut since no non-Chinese separation or magnet capacity exists at scale, meaning reliance will stay worse than officials admit.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Fewer than 50 additional funds will successfully claim Hong Kong's broadened carried-interest concession in its first full year, undercutting official enthusiasm.

Hong Kong's 2023 family-office tax concession drew so few claims that officials refused to disclose the number to the Legislative Council, calling the regime "still at an early stage," a pattern of hype outrunning uptake likely to repeat despite the widened eligibility.

By David Lee
View full prediction

No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.