Bilby prediction record

Predictions that hold up over time

A timestamped public record of what we called, and how each call resolved.

Prediction scorecard

Accuracy

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True

0

False

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Unresolved

129

Outcomes by prediction date

All published calls, grouped by prediction date.

TrueFalseUnresolved

Published predictions

129 predictions

Newest created first

Unresolved

State-owned NMDC and SAIL will report no material earnings benefit from India's MMDR Amendment Bill in their Q2 and Q3 FY27 results, despite investor enthusiasm.

The bill only restricts future state levies pending a central cap yet to be notified, and explicitly shields already-collected dues from refund, so Jharkhand's ₹400-per-tonne iron-ore levy on SAIL and any Karnataka-style charges on NMDC keep flowing until the executive rules actually land.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

South Korea's rare-earth dependence on China will still sit above 70% in every category through 2028, despite the new SEED stockpiling and recycling push.

Seoul has diversified gallium and germanium sourcing within 18 months by tapping refining capacity in Germany, the US and Canada, but its dependence on China for raw rare-earth elements (79.8%) and processed compounds and magnets (85-92%) will prove far harder to cut since no non-Chinese separation or magnet capacity exists at scale, meaning reliance will stay worse than officials admit.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

The Indonesian government will begin restricting subsidised Pertalite fuel for private cars above 1,500cc by Q1 2027.

Minister Bahlil Lahadalia’s confirmation that motorbikes will retain unrestricted access while wealthier car owners face curbs signals a shift towards an implementable registration-based mechanism designed to reduce fiscal leakage without burdening low-income commuters or fuelling inflation.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

In India, a writ petition challenging the constitutionality of the Tribunals Reforms Act will be filed in the Supreme Court within six months.

Opposition parties staged a walkout rather than debate the bill, while legal experts have warned that executive influence over National Tribunals Commission appointments could revive the separation-of-powers objections that undermined the 2021 Tribunals Reforms Act in earlier litigation.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Wind and solar project permit applications submitted to Korean regional energy offices will rise by more than 40% year-on-year in the next 12 months.

With roughly 16,600 sq km of previously off-limits land reopened by a national setback cap and 129 of Korea's 228 local governments required to loosen stricter rules, developers who had shelved projects for lack of compliant sites have a clear incentive to refile en masse.

By David Lee
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Seoul will water down its tax reform plan by restoring the option for Korean retail investors to keep tax breaks on savings accounts that hold US stock funds.

A draft plan would have added caps to these tax perks to push household savings into Korean markets instead, but a public backlash forced President Lee to order a full review, and Seoul backed down from a comparable investor tax hike under the same kind of pressure just last year.

By David Lee#South Korea
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Vietnam's 2026 GDP growth will land in the 7.5-8.5% range, undershooting the government's reaffirmed 10%-plus target for 2026-2030.

After 8.18% growth in the first half of 2026, hitting the full-year goal would require roughly 11.7% growth in the second half, an acceleration with no recent precedent, and one made even less likely by public-investment disbursement still running behind pace at around 42% of the annual plan by end-July.

By David Lee#Vietnam
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

At least one Japanese, Korean or Taiwanese wafer or polysilicon producer will announce a new US plant before August 2027 to dodge Washington's Section 232 tariffs.

The proclamation waives tariffs entirely for new capacity committed before January 2029, and with Chinese rivals locked out of the US market altogether, allied producers have a rare, time-limited window to capture guaranteed US demand duty-free before that deadline closes.

By David Lee#Japan#South Korea#Taiwan
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Japan will unveil a formal expansion of its rare-earth and critical-minerals stockpiling programme within the next three months, backed by new supplementary budget funding.

Beijing's detention of Japanese executives over alleged dual-use export violations is set to accelerate Tokyo's push to diversify rare-earth supply chains and insulate manufacturers from further retaliatory trade curbs.

By David Lee#Japan
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

Vietnam's listed-bank non-performing loan ratio will climb past 2.1% by Q4 2026, above the current 1.8% forecast, as new SBV-mandated rate discounts squeeze bank margins.

The central bank's directive forcing banks to price priority-sector loans a full percentage point below average lending rates adds to existing margin pressure, tempting weaker mid-tier lenders to chase loan volume to protect earnings.

By David Lee#Vietnam
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.

Unresolved

At least 50 million tonnes of small and mid-sized Chinese coal mining capacity will be shut or absorbed into larger state operators by end-2027, with China Shenhua the clearest beneficiary.

Beijing's new 15th Five-Year Coal Plan sets minimum mine-capacity floors of 1.2 million tonnes/year across Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, squeezing marginal operators out just months after Shenhua absorbed 133.6 billion yuan ($19.8 billion) of parent-company coal assets concentrated in those same four provinces.

By David Lee#China
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No resolution yet

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Unresolved

Japan will see at least three cross-industry mergers explicitly invoke "supply-chain resilience" or decarbonisation grounds for antitrust clearance within 12 months.

Japan's Fair Trade Commission has just revised its merger guidelines for the first time in seven years to formally recognise these factors as pro-competitive "efficiencies," an unprecedented opening that dealmakers across steel, chemicals, materials and energy are expected to move quickly to test.

By David Lee#Japan
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No resolution yet

We will update this record when the outcome is clear.